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SUBPRIME & ECONOMY CRISES IN THAILAND

NOVEMBER 21ST 2008 CRISES NEWS

Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Tarisa Watanagase ---she insisted that the financial crises in the United States will not significantly weaken Thailand’s financial liquidity, as Thailand has less non-performing loans (NPL).”The BOT governor added that the current level of non-performing loans (NPL) is not worrisome, whereas the credit segment can still expand.

Thai banks need to drop their interest rates to align themseleves with the Thai Reserve rate but they are intent to keep their rates high to manipulate the SET exchange. Thai banks are owned by a few Thai families who are showing signs of greed which really is the norm anycase. But for those who wish to buy Thai goods from out of Thailand the Banks are now demanding higher fees on TTs making the buyers look elsewhere for their goods so this affects retailers & wholesalers. This will have a profound affect on the Thai economies if the Banks do not come into line and will only but worsen the situation. We have heard of one Bank making their staff cold canvas to get people to open accounts, accept credit cards & insurances as a proviso for employment to meet a certain amount of policies & goals to attract anyone??? Does this make sense? only in Thailand but watch in the next few months what will happen as political unrest may escalate and if strikes do go ahead especially on the ports this will certainly affect Thailand.

Lets see what will happen as already factories and exports are affected by the World Recession.

 

      Check your foreign currency exchange rates against the Thai Baht with Bangkok Bank.

 

In Thailand the baht has dropped and the crises is taking its toll on manufacturers who export to Japan and USA as at November 2008. Factories are closing or down grading & in Samut Prakan we will see over 100,000 job loses BY NEXT YEAR if not this year. Property prices will now start to fall due to the insecurity of the present economic situation & within 6 months the property market will have difficulties here as some condo buildings are incomplete or cannot find buyers or overborrowed with limited before finish buyers which many of them expect to cover building costs. Also many Thais will consolidate and sell excess properties to meet their credit committments. This will lead to an about face of lower condo prices.

Thailand SET index has also been dropping as foreign investment is tending to shift to other countries. LAND AREAS: 1 rai = 4 ngarn = 400 wah2 = 1600 m2; 1 talang wah = wah2 = 4 m2; 1 acre = 2.53 rai & 1 ha = 6.25 rai 

 

 

Thinking about buying property in Thailand wait 6 months. Banks are lending to Thais & property prices are too high at the moment but will come down as the upcoming recession or depression takes its hold on the world.

Thailand SET index has also been dropping as foreign investment is tending to shift to other countries. The situation with The Baht, is now rising as in Nov to 35 baht =$1US. The Thais land laws mean foreigners cannot buy land and escalate the prices like in the West where properties have gone well out of proportion on the 3:1 ration of payments to salaries. This has in fact kept properties in Thailand to a subsistence level and allows people to buy at reasonable prices apart from overseas companies speculating on land developments for condos with thai partners as the Middle East are trying to do now. Condos are the same but theres plenty to choose from in Pattaya, Phuket and Bangkok, Chiangmai for you. Loads of realty agents selling condos but be careful and check out sinking funds and if they have Jurasic management Committee to run condos and maintence plans. Many older condos are not a good buy and as for capital gains basically forget it.The present US subprime hasn't affected Thailand due to the stringent selling provisos of banks after the last Asian crash and also because foreigners must pay cash for condos in Thailand --no loans. Again this has stopped speculation and uncontrolled borrowing and lending which has brought the western houses crashing. The west is finally paying for its overborrowing and spending and Thailand needs to be prepared as it will be definitely affected economically & socially as is happening in November 2008 before its too late like the 97 crash.

In the USA foreclosures hit a record high in August: 304,000 homes were in default and 91,000 families lost their houses. More than 770,000 homes have been repossessed by lenders since August 2007, when the credit crunch took hold.



ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THAILAND

With civil unrest biting into Thailand the unemployment will rise as more overseas Companies feel the pinch of the Crises and are forced to close. GM, Ford and Chrysler are 3 companies who are set to go into bankruptcy and this is due to not structuring properly with only foresight into making money for CEOs who keep their corporate salaries and jets thinking they are infallible. The Fed made a mistake by saying they would buy up the assets of Banks but how can they place a value on what these assets are worth???? after giving the money away and allowing others like hedge funders to form Banks to tap into this money. Now they find Banks have other motives of using this money so the crises will continue with no signs of abatting and the Fed is lost in not knowing what to do with the rerst of the billions. As more overseas Mother Companies feel the heat and are forced to close then those associated companies in Thailand must follow suit. You will now find those companies not affected or individuals with money to blow will buy up the bad ones who are feeling the pinch. So when you look at the last 1930s depression this is just round 2 happening.

Kasikornbank opening many new branches & ATMs

GM plans 2-mth shutdown at Thai plant, job cuts

BANGKOK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Thai unit of troubled U.S. carmaker General Motors said on Thursday it would shut down its Rayong plant for 2 months from mid-December due to falling demand caused by the global economic slowdown.GM Thailand also planned to cut 258 jobs at the plant, which produced about 100,000 vehicles last year, director of public relations Chartchai Suwanasevok told Reuters.

General Motors and Toyota said Thursday that they would cut production at their plants in Thailand, the latest moves by global automakers seeking to cut costs in the face of weak sales and deepening economic gloom.GM Thailand said that its factory at Rayong, which has a capacity of 130,000 units a year, would close for two months starting in mid-December and that it planned to cut 258 jobs there.

"We plan to close the plant to help control costs, and our 2,000 workers will be paid 75 percent of their monthly salary during the shutdown," Chartchai Suwanasevok, the director of public relations, said, without giving details on the production impact.The plant produced about 100,000 pickup trucks, SUVs, sedans and compact cars for Thailand, Southeast Asia and Australia in 2007. GM's global output last year was 9.28 million vehicles.Toyota, which produces 200,000 vehicles a year at its plant in Thailand, is also planning a cutback, a company spokeswoman said, without giving details. It is also seeking early retirement for 340 of its 1,850 temporary workers at the Gateway plant, which builds the Camry, Corolla, Yaris and other cars for Thailand and markets in the region.Toyota is the top brand in Thailand, but its sales dropped 21 percent in October compared with a year ago, worse than the market's 15 percent slide, partly because of a long-running political crisis eroding consumer confidence.

"There are signs of a slowdown not just in Thailand, but in the markets of export destinations," the Toyota spokeswoman said.Last week, GM's unit in South Korea said it would halt production for two weeks because of sluggish demand. But despite slowing growth in China, the world's second-largest car market, GM has no plans to halt production at its vehicle manufacturing ventures there, a spokesman said.PSA Peugeot-Citroën, Europe's biggest carmaker behind Volkswagen, announced a fresh wave of job cuts Thursday. Peugeot said it would cut 2,700 jobs across its sites in France, and it forecast that car sales would drop 17 percent in the final quarter of this year in main European markets and by at least 10 percent in 2009.Mazda said Thursday that it was not renewing the contracts of about 70 percent of its combined temporary work force at two Thai factories, leading to a reduction of about 1,300 workers by the end of this year.Most of the world's major automakers have plants in Thailand, which produced 1.29 million vehicles last year, of which 690,000 units were exported. By Viparat Jantraprap REUTERS

State workers call for general strike on Tuesday 

With civil unrest happening in Thailand between the PAD supporters of democracy and against the PPP party of Taksin Shinawatra & those for - - - it is not helping the country. Thai people have not yet come to grips with the present world crises and its business as usual. However tourism has dropped due to more foreigners staying home now and manufacturers are feeling it due to mother Companies being affected. Factories are closing and those with mortgages will find it hard if there jobs are in jeapardy. The strike could be the start of many as civil unrest will set in if this present Government does not solve the situation and stop helping themselves instead of the Thai people.

(BangkokPost.com) 21st Nov 2008- The State Enterprises Workers' Relations Confederation (SERC) called on Friday for a nationwide strike by employees of all 43 state enterprises next week, in response to what the group alleges to be the government's violent means in dealing with demonstrators.Sawit Kaewwan, secretary-general of SERC, said his group wants to pressure Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and the government to resign.State enterprise employees throughout the country should rally behind the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), starting on Nov 24 - next Monday, and go on strike indefinitely beginning the next day, until the government steps down.Mr Sawit claimed SERC has concluded that the government repeatedly used violence and brutality to suppress demonstrators, with the most recent example being the Thursday grenade attack which killed one PAD demonstrator at Government House and wounded more than 20.Deputy police chief Pol Gen Jongrak Juthanont, said the preliminary investigation invalidates the claim by the PAD that the Nov 20 grenade attack came from the fourth floor of the Office of The Civil Service Commission.He showed the media an M-79 grenade launcher, which police say was the weapon type used in the attack. Police also say the grenade launcher has been in widespread use since the Vietnam war and requires no special expertise to use.

Thai shares drop 3.28 per cent on Japan jitters

With Japan in recession now this has already affected Thailand manufacturers who have to down grade now and find new markets. Factories are closing and by next year the unemployment figures could hit 200,000+ people. We feel it will be a lot more as other associated businesses will also be hit from the retail markets to the service industries to tourism. There are the warning signs of unemployment hitting record levels in western countries and although Thailand was not affected by the subprime western speculation (they had the crash in 98) so the Banks we hope have learn't from that lesson. However the amount of housing projects that have now been abandoned or will be closed is an indication of whats to come. The Thai Government do not seem to be worried about the crises but are more intent on making money.

Thai shares lost 3.28 per cent Tuesday on jitters from news of Japan's recession.The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index ended at 419.97, down 14.24 points, on 7.9 billion baht (229.7 million dollars) in transactions. "The Thai market was following the Hong Kong and Tokyo bourses down," said Phuwadol Larpudomsuk, an analyst at Asia Plus Securities. "Investors are worried about the impact of recession in Japan on the region." Japan is a key investor in Thailand, particularly in the automobile manufacturing sector that drives Thai exports.//DPA Sourse. Nation 21st November 2008

 

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